The earlier lessons have met a test for almost every ailment a regression can have. Exam papers ask for them as a list to be matched: this symptom, which test? This lesson puts them in one place with, for each, the null hypothesis, the distribution, the decision rule and the remedy. It then teaches the three the earlier lessons did not: the Chow test, normality tests, and the steps of econometric methodology.
Every test in this module, 29 of them, with what it looks for. Filter by the kind of problem, or search by a name or a symptom, and open a card for the null hypothesis, the statistic and its distribution, how to decide, and what to do next. The last line of each card links to the lesson that teaches it.
Four questions sort any test: what is the null? (usually that nothing is wrong, but KPSS and Farrar-Glauber differ in what the null states), what does rejecting mean?, what distribution gives the cutoff? (t, F, chi-square, or a special table such as Dickey-Fuller’s), and what do I do next?
29 tests
The same material turned round: what you see, and the test that looks into it. The last column is the lesson that teaches it.
| What you see | Test | Lesson |
|---|---|---|
| The residuals fan out as a variable rises | Breusch-Pagan, White, Goldfeld-Quandt (Park or Glejser if one variable is suspected) | 9 |
| The residuals run in streaks above and below zero | Durbin-Watson; Breusch-Godfrey if there is a lagged dependent variable or the order is above one | 10 |
| High R² and a significant F, but weak t ratios | Variance inflation factors, Klein's rule, Farrar-Glauber | 8 |
| Something is wrong with the form of the model | Ramsey RESET | 7 |
| The coefficients may differ between two groups or before and after a date | Chow (date known); Bai-Perron (dates unknown) | Below |
| A regressor may be tangled up with the error | Hausman test against an instrumental-variables fit; Sargan for surplus instruments | 11 |
| A panel has an individual effect | Hausman test for fixed against random effects | 13 |
| A series trends over time | Dickey-Fuller (null: unit root), KPSS (null: stationary) | 15 |
| Two trending series may share a long-run relationship | Engle-Granger on the levels-regression residual | 16 |
| Do past values of x help predict y? | Granger causality F test (stationary series) | 16 |
| Are the residuals normal? | Jarque-Bera; Shapiro-Wilk in small samples | Below |
| Does a model with a 0/1 outcome fit? | Likelihood-ratio test and the count R² | 14 |
Ten symptoms, one at a time. The reason under each is the rule to keep.
Do two groups, or two periods, follow the same regression line? Fit the regression once to everyone (the restricted model: one set of coefficients) and once to each group separately (the unrestricted model: two sets). If the separate fits reduce the residual sum of squares by more than chance would, the groups differ. That is an F test of the kind lesson 3 taught, with k restrictions, one for each coefficient (the intercept included) being forced equal:
The exam’s version lists the steps: run the pooled regression and keep its residual sum of squares; run the two sub-sample regressions and keep both; compute F; look up the critical F; do not reject the null if the calculated F is below it. That order, with the decision rule last, is the answer to UGC NET December 2023 Q81, and it is the order in which the lab below displays its table.
In the survey the lab splits the households three ways and fits three equations. Try each combination before reading on.
| Households | Residual SS | |
|---|---|---|
| Pooled | 600 | 7,875 |
| Village | 356 | 4,319.1 |
| Town | 244 | 3,140.2 |
Horizontal: years of schooling. Vertical: monthly earnings (thousands of rupees).
Fitting one line to everyone leaves a residual sum of squares of 7,875; fitting a separate line to each group leaves 7,459.3. The Chow statistic is the fall, per parameter, against the split fit’s own variance: F = 16.61 on 2 and 596 degrees of freedom, p < 0.0001. The last cell is the same number reached as an F test that a dummy and its interactions are all zero in one pooled regression. In this survey the town and village lines differ by a real shift in the intercept (urban households earn and spend more at the same level of the other variables), so the test rightly rejects. It cannot say whether the intercept or a slope moved.
For earnings on schooling, splitting by town and village gives F = 16.61 on 2 and 596 degrees of freedom (p < 0.0001), and splitting the file into halves gives F = 1.47 (p = 0.23). The first reflects the survey’s real design (the town’s earnings sit higher at the same schooling, with the same true slope). The second is the control: the file is in no particular order, so there is no break to find.
The same test with dummies. Add a dummy for the second group and its interaction with every regressor to one pooled regression, then test that all of them are zero with the F test for restrictions. The statistic is identical to the Chow F, as the two last cells of the lab show. The dummy version is the one to use when you want to know which coefficient moved (lesson 5), or want robust standard errors.
Lesson 2 said the classical assumptions need no normality for OLS to be the best linear unbiased estimator, and that normal errors are needed for exact t and F distributions in small samples. How do we check? Two common tests, both with the null hypothesis that the errors are normal:
Try the lab with the survey’s residuals (normal by construction, so they should pass), then with the three simulated shapes, and watch how the verdict and the rejection rate depend on the sample size.
Horizontal: the value in standard deviations from the mean. Vertical: density. The red curve is the normal distribution.
60 draws give skewness 1.34 and kurtosis 4.27 (a normal has 0 and 3), so JB = 22.04 and p < 0.0001. The statistic adds the two departures, each squared and scaled by the sample size, so it grows with n: the same shape is easier to detect in a large sample. Across 1,000 fresh samples of this size and kind, the 5% test rejects 98.6% of them.
The table gives the share of 1,000 samples in which a 5% Jarque-Bera test rejects normality, by the true shape and the sample size.
| True shape of the errors | n = 20 | n = 50 | n = 100 | n = 300 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal errors | 2.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% |
| Skewed (exponential) | 48.3% | 95.5% | 100% | 100% |
| Heavy tails (t, 3 df) | 33.1% | 68.2% | 90.9% | 99.9% |
| Light tails (uniform) | 0.1% | 0% | 55.4% | 100% |
Read down the first row: with truly normal errors the test should reject 5% of the time, and it does so only in large samples, because the chi-square cutoff is a large-sample approximation. Read down the others: it finds a skew very quickly, heavy tails more slowly, and light tails (the uniform) slowly indeed. A pass is therefore weak evidence of normality in a small sample, and normality matters most exactly there.
The questions on methodology ask for the order of the steps from theory to policy. The standard list, in the order a textbook such as Gujarati’s Basic Econometrics gives it:
Start from an economic idea, such as Keynes's claim that consumption rises with income by less than the rise in income.
Write it as an exact relation between variables, with no error: consumption = a + b × income.
Allow for the other influences and for randomness by adding an error term: consumption = a + b × income + u. This is the model that can be estimated.
Collect the series or the survey. Its quality limits everything that follows.
Fit the model, usually by least squares, to get the coefficients and their standard errors.
Test the theory's claims: is b positive, is it below one? Run the diagnostic tests of this lesson too.
Use the fitted model to predict outcomes beyond the data.
Use the model to choose a policy, such as a tax change, or to control a variable.
An exam item may list only some of these, as UGC NET June 2026 Q73 does (theory, mathematical model, econometric model, data, hypothesis testing). The order is what counts: theory first, then the mathematical form, then the statistical form with its error term, then data, then estimation and testing.
Tap the steps in the order they happen. Tap “Undo” to take the last one back.
Matching lists are a regular format in UGC NET, and they appear in CUET and JNU too. They are quick when you have the atlas in your head, and hard to guess. Two habits help. Anchor on the pair you are sure of (Durbin-Watson with autocorrelation, say) and strike the options that disagree. Watch for the near-synonym trap: Breusch-Godfrey and Durbin-Watson both test autocorrelation, but one is “general”; White is the general test of heteroscedasticity and Goldfeld-Quandt is not.
Pick the numeral for each test. Each numeral is used once, as in the exam’s answer codes.
Name the problem, then the test, then say what rejecting means. Autocorrelation: Durbin-Watson (first order) or Breusch-Godfrey (general). Heteroscedasticity: White or Breusch-Pagan (general), Goldfeld-Quandt (two ends), Park and Glejser (one variable). Specification: RESET. Endogeneity: Hausman. Unit root: Dickey-Fuller. Cointegration: Engle-Granger. Normality: Jarque-Bera. Stable coefficients across groups: Chow.
Restricted against unrestricted regressions, reading output, and statement questions, up to GATE and IIT JAM level.
These are questions from the TestStop bank. A free account answers 10 a day, each with its worked solution; All-Access opens every set with no daily limit.
One item, UGC NET June 2026 Q38, prints “Cornbetch alpha” for what is plainly Cronbach’s alpha, a measure of the internal consistency of a survey scale, and pairs it with “rationality of data”. The other three pairs are certain (Goldfeld-Quandt with heteroscedasticity, the F test with overall significance, Augmented Dickey-Fuller with stationarity), so the first pair is fixed by elimination and the key follows. Questions that pair a cross-tabulation, a contingency table or an F test for several means with a test belong to the statistics modules as well.
The hardest questions of the module, from the Delhi School, are collected in lesson 18.