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Questions › DSE › DSE 2006 › Q31
2 marksStatistics › Probability and Bayes' theorem › Markov chains and random walksHardabout 4 min

DSE 2006 Question 31: Probability and Bayes' theorem

Three players AAA, BBB and CCC take turns playing a game as follows. AAA and BBB play in the first round. The winner plays CCC in the second round, while the loser sits out. The winner of the second round plays the person who was sitting out. The game continues in this fashion, with the winner of the current round playing the next round with the person who sits out in the current round. The game ends when a player wins twice in succession; this player is declared the winner of the contest. For any round, each of the two players has probability 1/21/21/2 of winning, regardless of past rounds. The probability that AAA becomes the winner of the contest is

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Plain-text version

Three players A, B and C take turns playing a game as follows. A and B play in the first round. The winner plays C in the second round, while the loser sits out. The winner of the second round plays the person who was sitting out. The game continues in this fashion, with the winner of the current round playing the next round with the person who sits out in the current round. The game ends when a player wins twice in succession; this player is declared the winner of the contest. For any round, each of the two players has probability 1/2 of winning, regardless of past rounds. The probability that A becomes the winner of the contest is (A) 5/14 (B) 1/2 (C) 3/7 (D) 7/16

Probability and Bayes' theorem has come up 190 times in 7 exams since 2004.

What this question tests

This question is on Markov chains and random walks, part of Probability and Bayes' theorem in Statistics.

Probabilities when the next step depends only on the present state.

TestStop has 6 past-paper questions on this subtopic.

Practise Probability and Bayes' theoremMore on Markov chains and random walks

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Question from the DSE 2006 paper. Solutions are TestStop's own. Not affiliated with or endorsed by any examination authority.